The story of Iran’s regional influence under Khamenei is a story of remarkable strategic ambition pursued over decades with considerable success — and then eroded, in a matter of years, by an adversary that proved more capable and more ruthless than Tehran had anticipated. Understanding this arc helps explain both how the Islamic Republic arrived at its current crisis and what strategic options it faces going forward.
The strategy was rooted in a core insight: that Iran, as a non-Arab, Persian, Shia state in a predominantly Arab, Sunni region, could not achieve regional dominance through conventional means. Instead, Khamenei pursued influence through what he called the “axis of resistance” — a network of groups united by opposition to Israel and the United States and supported materially and ideologically by Iran.
The strategy produced real results over decades. Hezbollah became a genuine military power that changed the calculus of Lebanese politics and deterred Israeli military action. Hamas provided Iran with a foothold in Palestinian politics. Iraqi Shia militias gave Tehran leverage over Baghdad. Houthi forces in Yemen created a problem for Saudi Arabia that absorbed enormous Saudi resources.
The vulnerabilities in the strategy became apparent after October 7, 2023. The Hamas attack triggered a response that Israel used to pursue not just Hamas but the entire axis of resistance. Hezbollah’s leadership was decimated in a series of targeted strikes of remarkable precision. Gaza was devastated. The strategic infrastructure that had taken decades to build was substantially dismantled in less than two years.
Iran’s inability to respond effectively to the destruction of its proxies — constrained by the fear of direct military retaliation and the exposure of its own military weaknesses — revealed the limits of the proxy strategy as a form of strategic power. The June airstrikes and Khamenei’s subsequent death represent the direct consequence of those limitations.
